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The Situation Is Quite Fragile – Investment Watch

Gerald Celente is a pioneer trend strategist and founder of The Trends Research Institute. He is the author of the national bestseller Trends 2000: How to Prepare for and Profit from the Changes of the 21st Century and publisher of the internationally circulated Trends Journal newsletter. Gerald Celente is a political atheist. Unencumbered by political dogma, rigid ideology or conventional wisdom, Celente, whose motto is “think for yourself,” observes and analyzes the current events forming future trends for what they are – not for the way he wants them to be. Gerald Celente has earned his reputation as “The most trusted name in trends” by accurately forecasting hundreds of social, business, consumer, environmental, economic, political, entertainment, and technology trends.

US Credit Conditions to Weaken to Post-Pandemic Low, Banks Say

  • Bank economists see tighter credit for businesses, consumers

  • Survey was taken after recent banking stress, trade group says


IMF chief economist: “below the surface…turbulence is building, and the situation is quite fragile as the recent bout of banking instability reminded us,” adding that the odds of a recession have “risen sharply.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its April World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, and its researchers didn’t hold back, warning that stubborn inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer, leading to a “hard landing” for the global economy. Their report contrasts with Goldman Sachs’ recent forecast that labor market rebalancing will enable a “soft landing” in the U.S.—where inflation is tamed without sparking a recession—as well as Barclays’ February projection for a “no-landing” scenario that involves resilient economic growth and higher inflation. And in some ways, the IMF’s new outlook disregards a genuinely constructive trend on inflation.

Many central banks worldwide have made progress in their fight against rising consumer prices in recent months. In the U.S., year-over-year inflation dropped from its 9.1% June peak to just 6% in February. And the European Union saw its key inflation measure sink to 6.9% last month, from 8.5% in February. But the IMF’s economists still believe inflation will be an issue for years to come. In developed economies, they forecast, it will take until after 2024 for consumer price increases to fall to central banks’ 2% target—and the situation will be even worse for developing nations.

Global economic growth will also fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023, according to the IMF, before leveling off at 3% in 2024. The fund’s director, Kristalina Georgieva, noted last week that the forecast amounts to the weakest medium-term global growth projection in over 30 years.

US Small Businesses Face Worst Credit in a Decade After SVB

More US small businesses reported having greater difficulty getting a loan in March after multiple bank failures led to a further tightening of credit conditions.

A net 9% of owners who borrow frequently said financing was harder to get compared to three months earlier, the most since December 2012, according to a survey from the National Federation of Independent Business out Tuesday. The same share expects tougher credit conditions in the next three months, matching the highest level in a decade.

Small Firms Face Bigger Challenge Getting Funding

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