Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell again yesterday. And by a worthwhile amount. They’re now back below their level on June 10, which was the first day of the recent painful rises.
Mortgage rates today look likely to hold steady or inch higher, according to early market movements this morning. However, that could change later in the day because those markets remain highly volatile.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
|Conventional 30 year fixed||5.806%||5.84%||-0.13%|
|Conventional 15 year fixed||5.04%||5.096%||-0.13%|
|Conventional 20 year fixed||5.829%||5.883%||-0.09%|
|Conventional 10 year fixed||5.227%||5.33%||-0.08%|
|30 year fixed FHA||6.018%||6.891%||-0.08%|
|15 year fixed FHA||5.249%||5.737%||-0.1%|
|30 year fixed VA||5.623%||5.856%||-0.01%|
|15 year fixed VA||5.306%||5.68%||-0.16%|
|Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
Don’t lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.
Mortgage rates have been tumbling for the last two days. Does that mean I’ve been comprehensively wrong to predict further rises soon? It might.
But I still think mortgage rates will climb again, though perhaps more slowly than so far this year. The problem is inflation. People who buy mortgage bonds hate it. And I don’t see mortgage rates falling far or for long while inflation remains so high.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term must remain:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- LOCK if closing in 30 days
- LOCK if closing in 45 days
- LOCK if closing in 60 days
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:
- The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 3.10% from 3.07%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
- Major stock indexes were higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
- Oil prices fell a little to $105.40 from $106.37 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
- Gold prices decreased to $1,827 from $1,838 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
- CNN Business Fear & Greed index — rose to 27 from 23 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold steady or edge up. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
- Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
- When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
- Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
I’m going to repeat part of the quote from UBS chief economist Paul Donovan that I shared yesterday:
Markets are flip-flopping between recession fears and inflation fears. Today it is recession fears.
Paul Donovan, UBS, “The Fed Chair who cried ‘wolf,’” June 22, 2022
The problem with this flip-flopping is that it shows up in markets as turbulence. We have a few days when mortgage rates rise sharply because investors are petrified by inflation. And then those rates tumble because markets have switched their focus to the possibility (perhaps likelihood) of a recession.
“It [a recession] is certainly a possibility. It’s not our intended outcome, but it’s certainly a possibility.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell quoted by AP, June 22, 2022
Some recessions are bad for mortgage rates
Often a recession will trigger mortgage rate falls. That’s because investors flee their risky-but-rewarding stocks for safe-but-dull mortgage bonds. They seek a safe haven in the storm. But that’s not necessarily the case when the Federal Reserve is moving to quell inflation.
The most famous example of this was when the Fed tackled inflation in the early 1980s. That created a horribly painful recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982. Did mortgage rates tumble? Unfortunately not.
Indeed, they soared to record highs. Those for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages were at 16.83% at the start of that recession. And they were at 17.x% or 18.x% for eight of those recession months, according to Freddie Mac’s archives.
Don’t panic! Nobody’s expecting anything like those high rates this time around. But don’t think a recession will necessarily ride to the rescue of mortgage rates when the Fed’s in this mood.
Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background.
Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Rates then bumbled along, moving little for the following eight or nine months. But they began rising noticeably that September. Unfortunately, they’ve been mostly shooting up since the start of 2022, although May was a kinder month.
Freddie’s June 23 report puts that same weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.81% (with 0.8 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 5.78%. But that survey won’t have captured the week’s later falls.
Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.8 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on Jun. 16, and the MBA’s on Jun. 10. Freddie’s were released on Apr. 18. But it now updates its figures only quarterly, so they’re already looking stale.
Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. Recent events certainly make them look that way.
Find your lowest rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent, or affiliates.